Latinos in Florida would vote for Trump if the election were held today, poll shows

With the presidential election just weeks away, Telemundo Station Group and Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. surveyed the state of Florida to find out what decision Latino voters would make.

625 Hispanic voters registered in Florida interviewed by phone, indicated that they were likely to vote in the November general election. The interviewees were randomly selected from a Florida voter registration list that included landline and cell phone numbers.

The margin of error is no more than 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95% probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if all Hispanic voters in Florida were surveyed.

This survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida, from September 23rd to 25th of 2024.

• When asked, if the presidential election were held today, for whom they would vote, Trump leads Harris in Florida 48% to 41% according to the poll, (a seven-point difference).
• As for the most influential issue when deciding to vote, the economy ranks first.
• Which presidential candidate do you trust more to handle abortion issues – Kamala Harris, the Democrat, or Donald Trump, the Republican? A 47% tie was among respondents.

Question

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, for which of the following presidential or vice presidential candidacies would you vote?

• The Democratic Party ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
• The Republican Party ticket of Donald Trump and JD Vance.
• One of the other party nominations

	Harris	Trump	Other	Has not been decided
State	41%	48%	4%	7%
Region	Harris	Trump	Other	Has not been decided
Central Florida	45%	39%	5%	11%
Tampa Bay	48%	43%	2%	7%
Southeast Florida	38%	53%	5%	4%
Gender	Harris	Trump	Other	Has not been decided
Male	28%	60%	6%	6%
Female	53%	37%	3%	7%
Age	Harris	Trump	Other	Has not been decided
Under 50	44%	43%	6%	7%
Over 50	37%	53%	3%	7%
Hispanic origin	Harris	Trump	Other	Has not been decided
Cuban	28%	61%	4%	7%
Puerto Rican	58%	33%	2%	7%
Other	41%	47%	6%	6%
Politic party	Harris	Trump	Other	Has not been decided
Democrat	85%	6%	2%	7%
Republican	1%	91%	6%	2%
Independent	37%	45%	5%	23%

Question

Which of the following issues is the most influential in deciding your vote for president?

	State	Harris Voters	Trump Voters
Economy	41%	32%	48%
Protection of American democracy	13%	19%	10%
Immigration	10%	9%	11%
Abortion	9%	14%	5%
Foreign policy and wars	7%	3%	10%
Medical attention	5%	9%	2%
Climate change	4%	2%	6%
Law, order and crime	4%	2%	6%
Other	3%	2%	3%
Not sure	2%	3%	2%

Humanitarian Parole

Interviewees were also asked about a major issue for the state these days, Humanitarian Parole for Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans and Haitians. The majority, 65%, support the program, which received the most support among Democrats surveyed, at 78%.

Question

Do you support or oppose the Humanitarian Permit program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans, under which citizens of these four countries and their immediate families can obtain permission to enter the US for up to two years if a person in the US agrees to support them financially?

	Support	Oppose	Undecided
State	65%	29%	6%
Region	Support	Oppose	Undecided
Central Florida	65%	28%	7%
Tampa Bay	74%	22%	4%
Southeast Florida	62%	30%	8%
Gender	Support	Oppose	Undecided
Male	63%	29%	8%
Female	65%	29%	6%
Age	Support	Oppose	Undecided
Under 50	63%	32%	5%
Over 50	65%	27%	8%
Hispanic origin	Support	Oppse	Undecided
Cuban	63%	31%	6%
Puerto Rican	68%	24%	8%
Other	63%	31%	6%
Party	Support	Oppose	Undecided
Democratic	78%	17%	5%
Republican	53%	42%	5%
Independent	62%	28%	10%%

Venezuela

When asked whether they favor or oppose increased sanctions against the Venezuelan government in the State of Florida, 73% support sanctions, with Republicans showing the highest support at 83%.

Question

Do you favor or oppose increased sanctions against the government of Venezuela?

	Support	Oppose	Undecided
State	73%	17%	10%
Region	Support	Oppose	Undecided
Central Florida	71%	11%	18%
Tampa Bay	72%	19%	9%
Southeast Florida	76%	16%	8%

Cuba

Do you favor or oppose lifting the trade embargo on Cuba? 48% of respondents in the state were opposed. Mostly women, located Central Florida and Republicans.

Puerto Rico

Do you favor or oppose making Puerto Rico the 51st state? 68%, women, Democrats, and located in Tampa Bay, expressed support.

Immigration

Interviewees also answered the following question: How serious do you think the illegal immigration problem is for the country right now? Is it very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not serious at all? 58%, especially Cuban men in Southeast Florida, over 50 years old, Republicans, responded that it is very serious.

Continuing with the immigration issue, to the question, whether you think the borders are secure or not, 72 of the respondents answered that they are not secure, with 92% being Republicans.

When asked if they support or oppose immigration reform that offers a path to citizenship, 70%, mostly women, over 50, of Puerto Rican origin, and Democrats, support reform.

Which presidential candidate do you trust more to handle abortion issues: Kamala Harris, or Donald Trump? Some 55% of respondents trust Trump more, mostly in Southeast Florida, male, Cuban, and Republican.

Abortion

Amendment 4 on the Florida ballot is titled the Abortion Rights Initiative. If passed, it would amend the state constitution to provide that no law shall prohibit, criminalize, delay or restrict abortion prior to viability. It also provides for abortion when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s health care provider.

According to the poll, 55% of interviewees in the state, mostly Democrats, would support the Abortion Rights initiative.

Here are the counties were the survey was conducted:

North Florida

Voters were interviewed in Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Walton, Washington, Washington, Holmes, Jackson, Gadsden, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Putnam, St. Johns, Flagler, Union, Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist and Levy counties.

Central Florida

Voters were interviewed in Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Sumter, Volusia, Volusia and Indian River counties.

Tampa Bay

Voters were interviewed in Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Citrus, Manatee and Sarasota counties.

Southwest Florida

Voters were interviewed in DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties.

Southeast Florida

Voters were interviewed in Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.

Demographics

Democratic Party: 216 (35%)
Republican Party: 220 (35%)
Independent/ other: 189 (30%)

Age

18-34: 109 (17%)
35-49: 194 (31%)
50-64: 154 (25%)
65+: 163 (26%)

Hispanic origin

Mexican American: 24 (4%)
Puerto Rican: 139 (22%)
Cuban American: 205 (33%)
Venezuelan: 36 (6%)
Colombian: 66 (11%)
Central American: 52 (8%)
Other: 95 (15%)

Birth Place

United States: 371 (59%)
Other: 254 (41%)

Gender:

Men: 297 (48%)
Women: 325 (52%)
Other: 1

Region

North Florida: 35 (5%)
Central Florida: 130 (21%)
Tampa Bay: 100 (16%)
Southwest Florida: 30 (5%)
Southeast Florida: 330 (53%)